SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, LINK

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading below the psychologically critical $100,000 level for the past few days, signaling a lack of aggressive buying at lower levels. CryptoQuant contributor J. A. Maartunn said in a Quicktake blog post that Bitcoin “flowing out of derivative exchanges and into spot exchanges” suggests the start of a bearish phase.

The large outflows from cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) last week suggest that the market participants are turning cautious in the near term. According to a CoinShares report, Bitcoin ETPs witnessed $430 million in outflows in the previous trading week, possibly triggered by macroeconomic concerns and the hawkish remarks by the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

However, not everyone is bearish on Bitcoin. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley said in a post on X that he has “never been more optimistic” about Bitcoin as it is “going to take into the mainstream this year.” Another bullish voice is that of Bitwise head of alpha strategies Jeff Park who called Bitcoin a “generational opportunity.”

Which way will Bitcoin break out? Could altcoins start a recovery, or will they fall further? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.

S&P 500 Index price analysis

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has been trading between the 50-day simple moving average (6,007) and the overhead resistance of 6,128.

The gradually upsloping 20-day exponential moving average (6,047) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive territory indicate the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers maintain the price above 6,128, the index could start the next leg of the uptrend to 6,403.

This optimistic view will be negated in the near term on a break and close below the 50-day SMA. That could sink the price to 5,923 and subsequently to 5,853.

US Dollar Index price analysis

The failure of the bulls to maintain the US Dollar Index (DXY) above the 20-day EMA (107.78) suggests that bears are active at higher levels.

The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative zone suggest that bears have an edge. The index fell below the 106.96 support on Feb. 14, indicating the start of a corrective phase. If the price maintains below 106.96, the index could decline to the solid support at 105.42.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the overhead resistance at 108.52. If this level is cleared, the index may rally to 110.17.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin bulls are struggling to push the price above the moving averages, indicating that demand dries up at higher levels.

The bears will try to take charge by pulling the price below $94,000. If they manage to do that, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to the vital support at $90,000. Buyers are expected to fiercely defend the level because a break and close below it will complete a double top pattern. This setup has a target objective of $70,412.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up and breaks above the moving averages, it will suggest that the bulls are back in the game. The pair could rise to $102,500 and thereafter to $106,500.

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) has been swinging inside a large range between $2,111 and $4,094, signaling buying near the support and selling close to the resistance. 

The bulls are trying to start a relief rally, which is expected to reach the downtrend line. If the price turns down sharply from the downtrend line, the bears will try to sink the ETH/USDT pair below $2,500. If they manage to do that, the pair could drop to $2,400 and eventually to the critical support at $2,111.

On the other hand, a break and close above the downtrend line suggests that the correction may be over. The pair could rally to $3,450 and subsequently to $3,750.

XRP price analysis

XRP (XRP) has dropped to the moving averages, which is critical near-term support to watch out for.

If the price rebounds off the moving averages and rises above $2.84, the bulls will try to push the XRP/USDT pair to the downtrend line. Sellers are expected to aggressively defend the downtrend line, but if the bulls prevail, the pair could reach $3.40. 

Alternatively, a break and close below the moving averages suggests that the bears are selling on rallies. The pair could then fall to the support line, which is likely to attract solid buying by the bulls.

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) is finding support at the 20-day EMA ($650), indicating a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips. 

The bulls are trying to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($672), opening the doors for a possible rally to the overhead resistance at $745. If buyers overcome the $745 level, the BNB/USDT pair could rise to $794 and then to $855.

Contrarily, if the price turns down and breaks below $635, it will suggest that the bears are back in the game. A drop below $635 could keep the pair inside the large range between $745 and $460. The next support is at $600 and then at $560. 

Solana price analysis

Solana (SOL) broke below the near-term support at $187 on Feb. 16, indicating that bears remain in control.

The SOL/USDT pair could drop to the critical support at $175, which is likely to attract buyers. A weak bounce off $175 increases the likelihood of a break below it. If that happens, the pair may descend to $155.

On the other hand, a strong rebound of $175 indicates aggressive buying by the bulls. A break and close above the 20-day EMA ($202) will be the first sign of a sustained recovery. The pair may then climb to $220.

Related: Is XRP price going to crash again?

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin’s (DOGE) relief rally turned down from the 20-day EMA ($0.27) on Feb. 15, indicating a negative sentiment.

The DOGE/USDT pair could slide to the support line of the descending channel pattern, where the buyers are expected to mount a strong defense. If the bears prevail, the pair could tumble to $0.20.

Instead, if the price turns up from the current level or the support line, it will suggest buying on dips. The bulls will have to push the price above the 20-day EMA to signal strength. The pair may then climb to the 50-day SMA ($0.32).

Cardano price analysis

Cardano (ADA) has risen above the 20-day EMA ($0.80), indicating that the bulls are trying to make a comeback.

If the price closes above the 20-day EMA, the ADA/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.91). Sellers will try to stall the recovery at the 50-day SMA, but it is likely to be crossed. The pair may then reach the resistance line.

This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $0.76. The pair may retest the support line of the descending channel pattern, where buyers are expected to step in.

Chainlink price analysis

Chainlink (LINK) has been witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the breakdown level of $19.25.

The bulls will have to drive the LINK/USDT pair above the 20-day EMA ($20.03) to suggest that the breakdown below $19.25 may have been a bear trap. The pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($21.73) and later to $24.50.

If bears want to retain control, they will have to defend the 20-day EMA and sink the pair below the $17.44 support. If they manage to do that, the pair could slump to the crucial support at $15.40.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.